Maurie McGuireSanta Barbara Real Estate Market Analysis May 2015
The real estate market for Single Family Residences (SFR) on the South Coast of Santa Barbara maintained its strength in May with increases seen in both price and volume. Inventory continues to lag however with only 145 new listings in May for a total of 286 single family homes for sale in May compared to 293 in April, although there has been a slight uptick in inventory so far in June. Here’s what the month over month numbers look like at a glance:
|
May |
April |
Increase/Decrease |
|
| Median Sales Price |
$1,280,000 |
$980,000 |
+$300,000 |
| Median List Price |
$1,195,000 |
$1,220,000 |
-25,000 |
| Average List Price |
$2,000,000 |
$2,130,000 |
-130,000 |
| Days on Market |
52 |
50 |
+2 |
| Closed Escrows |
127 |
95 |
+32 |
| New Listings |
145 |
165 |
-20 |
| Inventory |
286 |
293 |
-7 |
Year over year the median sales price is up 2.5% to $1,130,000 and the number of sales increased by 12.5%. The average sales price is up to $1,890,000 in 2015 from $1,670,000 in 2014. The number of escrows increased 19% to 540 with a median list price of $1,175,000 representing a 1% gain. The South Coast Districts look like this:
| District |
2015 Sales |
Median Price |
2014 Sales |
Median Price |
| Carpinteria/Summerland |
44 |
$895,000 |
28 |
$860,000 |
| Montecito |
80 |
$3,100,000 |
76 |
$2,465,000 |
| East of State |
128 |
$1,298,000 |
125 |
$1,245,000 |
| West of State |
107 |
$933,562 |
93 |
$950,000 |
| Hope Ranch |
19 |
$2,900,000 |
11 |
$3,700,000 |
| Goleta South |
29 |
$775,000 |
31 |
$738,000 |
| Goleta North |
76 |
$877,000 |
64 |
$845,000 |
Through the end of May sales are up for both SFR (12.5%) and condos rising 42%. The median prices for both segments is up with SFR (+ 2.5%) to $1,130,000 and condos up 3% to $560,000.
The most telling number in May was 23% of SFR’s sold for over their list price and condos were 32% over list. The percentage over list for SFR’s was approximately 3% and condos over 10%, a dramatic increase. This may have caused some aspirational pricing of new listings because 18% of SFR’s and 17% of condos initiated a price adjustments to stay in the market.
The peak month for sales in any given year predictably occurs in May and this trend appears to be intact. There is upward pressure on prices of SFR’s evidenced by the percentage of homes sold over the list price but the percentage over list is only 3% meaning homes are being priced well to market. For condos 32% of the sales were over the asking price indicating a high demand for both second homes and convenient life styles. What we can expect to see for the second half of the year depends on inventory. If we see more listings then prices should stabilize. However if inventory remains low relative to the number of buyers we’ve been seeing then this will keep the upward pressure on prices, a classic case of supply and demand.
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