Rising Tides: Sea Levels in Santa Barbara

Melting Antarctic Ice Sheet Slowly Swelling Toward Us

These are projections for future sea level rise, based on mapping data used for a 2012 study of the Santa Barbara coastline. Blue portions represent 17 inches of sea level rise by 2050, plus three feet of flooding. Red portions represent 55 inches by 2100, plus three feet of flooding. Maps like this use the “bathtub approach” — assuming that everything below a specific elevation will be inundated — and do not factor in natural or man-made barriers.

Rising sea levels, though, mean that our beachfront ​— ​and quite possibly our downtown ​— ​will be fundamentally changed over time. And a new report issued in April found that sea level rise along the California coastline could be faster and more drastic than previously predicted. Especially alarming was one scenario that saw California experiencing a 10-foot sea level rise by 2100, higher than most scientists previously thought possible. Regional sea level studies, of course, can be tricky. It’s difficult to accurately assess how one community will be impacted.

So while the authors don’t know how likely such an extreme scenario is, they can confidently predict it would be a fairly remote possibility. More certain are the report’s projected middle-of-the road scenarios, which look similar to what we knew already. What we know already, however, is cause for concern.

Gary Griggs, a UC Santa Cruz oceanographer who studied the Santa Barbara coastline in 2012 and found the city vulnerable to climate-caused sea level rise, also contributed to the new April report, commissioned by the California Ocean Protection Council. Griggs has a personal interest in Santa Barbara ​— ​he went to UCSB as an undergraduate and has two daughters in the area ​— ​one a former Santa Barbara Independent staffer. He estimates the city will likely see a 12-inch sea level rise by 2050, and three to four feet by 2100. (That’s assuming we continue curbing our carbon emissions.)

But here’s the good news: There’s a lot we can do. The April report clearly shows that our future is in our hands. The rate of sea level rise before 2050 is essentially fixed. But if the world manages to get its emissions under control and achieves the kinds of goals outlined by the Paris Accord, the most likely outcomes for 2100, while significant, are pretty livable.

Overall, the sea level asessment study determines that by 2050, the risk of wave damage to shoreline development and infrastructure in Santa Barbara will be high – with limited options, moderate adaptive capacity, and retreat being the most viable long‐term option – and that by 2100, the risk will become very high.